Evening frequency balance

Recently the 97 was upped in evening frequency from every 12-20 ranging between early evening and late evening; to a blanket every 12 frequency until the last bus. I had a long hard think about 63/363.

That got me thinking, the 97 is a busy route that well deserves that.

What about the routes that burn more resources with their higher frequencies?

What do I mean about that?

Take for example a 218. The 218 is every 12 at all hours of operation, including evenings. The 266 meanwhile ranges from every 12-20, becoming every 20 from about 2230 hours.

It's normal for most routes to have sparse amount of passengers aboard buses, a few passengers or a dozen at most - unless it serves popular destinations.

Ideally the lowest frequency on high-frequency routes would be every 15.

This statement almost runs true for every route out of Zone 1. Except the 4, 47 and 196, to name-shame a few routes.

All of the above examples are standalone routes that don't have large sections paralleling other routes (somewhat).

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Meanwhile, the 63 and 363 are. Parallel each other? Check. High-frequency evenings? Check. Burns more resources with the higher frequencies? Can't check, but I'd throw a maybe.

The standardisation of the route splits (e.g 2/432, 36/436, 63/363, etcetera) all running the same routes day in day out, all days of the year, is something I've been vocal in somewhat reversing.

I don't call for going right back to history with, say, 137 to Crystal Palace during the evenings as far as the public are concerned. However, as far as operationally, I would vouch that. How will this look? Like a 417 if you're at Crown Point. Like a 137 at Queenstown Road. Joe and Jenny public won't be the wiser it's a bus running from Marble Arch to Crystal Palace.

Stuff like that.

Here's a tube example.

There's a Hammersmith & City Line train that runs to Upminster.

Yet on the tube map, there is no pink east of Barking.

How is this done?

The H&C train runs as normal, displaying Barking as it's terminus. Upon serving Aldgate East, it's changed to become a District Line train to Upminster.

Now you can see where I'm headed with the 137/417 example I gave. Think of that H&C/District example but copy-paste that with the route splits, in this next case, 63/363.

Hypothetical LVF observation

A contractually-63 bus on it's southbound journey would change destinations at Elephant & Castle displaying 363 to Crystal Palace

A contractually-363 bus on it's northbound journey would change destinations at Honor Oak displaying 63 to King's Cross.

A contractually-63 bus from Crystal Palace already displaying 363 to Elephant & Castle, then at Honor Oak displays 63 to King's Cross as normal.

A contractually-363 bus from King's Cross heading southbound is displaying 63 to Honor Oak, then at Elephant & Castle displays 363 to Crystal Palace as normal.

Accounts for both sides and both contracts.

63's peak occupancy during evenings is around 46%-50%. Very healthy

363's peak occupancy during evenings is around 28%-33%. Normal.

Thanks FOI request made by someone

The requirement for 63's evening service is 12-14 buses (every 10)

The requirement for 363's evening service is 8 buses (every 12)

If those 22 buses were doing the full route from King's Cross to Crystal Palace, you could sustain an every 6-7 service!

Or, if you had an every 8 service from King's Cross to Crystal Palace, you'd only need 18 buses.

An every 10 service, requiring roughly 14 buses. - Might not be wise with the context of 63's being well utilised currently.

Assuming it takes £100K to operate a bus annually then:

100,000 / 364 days in a year = 274.72 per day

£274.72 / 18 hours = £15.26 per hour

£15.26 * 4 hours of evening = £61.05

So it would cost £61.05 to operate one bus on the evening, roughly.

Using 363's recent tender, it's price is £4,092,254 annually - £314,788 per bus, crude estimation but roll with it.

314788 / 364 = 864.80

864.80 / 18 hours = 48.04 per hour

48.04 * 4 hours of evening = 192.17

Using the full route (King's Cross-Crystal Palace) examples at every 8 and every 10, you would save:

£768.71 estimated annually, 18 buses performing full route at every 8 frequency.

£1537.42 estimated annually, 14 buses performing full route at every 10 frequency.

Conclusion: hypothetically could save £xxx during the quieter evenings, as opposed to cutting buses during the day that hurts revenue that could be obtained whilst passengers are also worse off.

I wish I could examine personally if the parallel 63/363 have between Elephant & Castle and Honor Oak is more than adequate, or just adequate, however, I'd prefer to be safe at home than meeting less desirable folks in the streets.

It takes 10 mins from Honor Oak to Crystal Palace, then 12 mins from Crystal Palace to Honor Oak. In total: 22 minutes round trip. That means a minimum of two 63 buses in schedule needed. Very easy to source.

I'll apply the same with 68 and 468

3 hours round trip from Euston to South Croydon: 

68 evening service PVR (120 mins rounder, includes stand time): 12

468 evening service PVR (150 mins rounder, includes stand time): 10

In the case of a long route like 68/468 it is different to the 63/363 but still, similar:

A contractually-68 bus on it's southbound journey would change destinations at West Norwood after relief break, displaying 468 to South Croydon, South End

A contractually-68 bus from South Croydon already displaying 468 to Elephant & Castle, then at West Norwood displays 68 to Euston as normal.

A contractually-468 bus on it's northbound journey would change destinations at Elephant & Castle following a break, displaying 68 to Euston.

A contractually-468 bus from Euston heading southbound is displaying 68 to West Norwood, then at Elephant & Castle displays 468 to South Croydon, South End as normal.

The above would work better for Sundays but alas I wrote an alternative instead of copy-pasting the above paragraph detailing how 63/363 would change displays.

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Usually I would make a spreadsheet and add almost every route with a parallel (e.g 63/363, 68/468, 149/349, etc) but I'm less in the mood, and time is slowly up currently.

Is the status quo broken? No

Is it inefficient? Yes

Could savings have been made here instead of during the daytime? Absolutely, perhaps not as huge, but certainly savings made that would impact less people.

With that, thanks for reading my rushed post, I will not be posting for a while as I will be on break, if I do return, I will post. If not, bless you, thanks for reading my posts until now.