Past mistakes reversed

Spot the differences! (at least 4)
Do view the history of 223 on londonbuses.co.uk

I always wanted a post like this, going back in history and detailing every change that was reversed indirectly.

Then the Hillingdon consultation came about, as you can figure out above image.

This threw a minor spanner in the works as we have two almost literal reversals now, the N35 number coming back in 2024 as it returns to Old Street (perhaps Tottenham Court Road is a stretch now)

Quick estimates I calculated

U3 PVR 11 -> 17

U2 PVR 9 -> 11

U1 PVR 8 -> 0 withdrawn

Cost neutral basically

Reception among the knowledgeable locale is that U2's extension via Cowley to West Drayton is weak, with Cowley adequately served by 222 without needing help per se.

The U3 returning to Ruislip with a frequency increase is welcome (every 12 M-Sat 20 Sun/eve currently - every 10 M-Sat 12 Sun/eve proposed), though no mention of double deckers which is a little sad in this climate of routes converting recently, not to mention U3 is already allocated one on-paper in addition to temporary double decks to cover for 251 using diesels in the meantime.

   The section from Ruislip goes from a bus every 15 mins Mon-Sat and 30 mins Sun/eve into a massive uplift from U3's new frequency. True bonus.

To think 223(U3 predecessor) was every 20-22 on Mon-Fri peak hours and every 30 off-peak Mon-Fri. Overlaps on Saturday between Uxbridge and West Drayton giving the overlap an every 17-18 frequency whilst the outer ends had a bus every 34-35 minutes.

Another sad aspect is U3 not serving Uxbridge Station. Making travel more convenient should be done, rather than making it less convenient. That includes the mention of 13 minutes walk time to get to Brunel Uni as a result of U2's reroute. Also roads no longer being served by E7 by Ruislip. But hey, U2 no longer has off-peak only via Grosvenor Crescent, will serve from first bus to last bus every day.

Little blurb for Orpington scheme I won't make a full post about

B14 PVR (rerouted over R6 instead of via R11) +1 

R1 PVR (reroute via R2 to Biggin Hill) +3

R3 PVR (takes R1's Green St Green section) +2

R2 PVR -3 withdrawn

R6 PVR -2 withdrawn

estimate Orpington routes total PVR: Neutral?

The reception of the Orpington scheme is more than mellow, the Biggin Hill section receiving an increase in capacity by frequency (from every 30 to 20). Meanwhile B14 is still sadly indirect and be more indirect as the only link from Bexleyheath to Orpington.

   If anything R7 has taught us, or God forbid like P13 to Surrey Quays, a long low-frequency route, could cause problems for reliability. No one foresaw it with R7 but I'll have my tinfoil hat on.

Lest not forget R2 was a cross-Orpington route, and now with R2's death the R1 to Biggin Hill will again be a cross-Orpington route.

So 2023 TfL mergers maybe working...

With that, let's get cracking on more past mistakes.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Excess Journey Times

Performance graph

We know about Excess Wait Times

EWT = Actual Wait Time - Scheduled Wait Time

   e.g route 3 for an hour at 1600pm:

        wait 8 mins, then 12 mins, then 14, then 8, then 11, then 10, then 12 = 75 mins total

                8*4 + 12*6 + 14*7 + 8*4 + 11*5.5 + 10*5 + 12*6 = 416.5

                416.5 / 75 = 5.55

        AWT = 5.55

        SWT (half frequency of route [route 3 is every 10]) = 5 mins

        AWT - SWT =  0.5 mins = EWT

Here's an article for more detail.

The function of Excess Wait Times is simple: Make wait times consistent. 

In theory this should be fine for passengers. No one likes waiting longer than they should.

Though in reality, it's ended up becoming so important that the essence of a reasonable bus journey was sacrificed, for profits. Profitability is important in a capitalist society, but above all else, losing money is something even more important to avoid.

That's the oversimplification of matters, a lot of bus routes aren't profitable after all (think of all the small single deck routes).

When two buses are sharing the same headway (i.e bunched), it's calculated as one bus in the system. As a result, you have lost mileage for that duration.

By performing better than the minimum standard, the operator is given bonuses.

By performing worse than the standard, lose mileage - the operator is fined for it.

Regulation, which is helpful to keeping EWT to standard. You're not the customer, the company is the customer, and they deliver.

As of 2023 a lot of routes had running time reductions by reducing the Peak Vehicle Requirement by one bus, fine and dandy to wait less - if your bus isn't less reliable as a result. Thus waiting longer ironically. Back to square one.

Therefore, Excess Journey Time

my idea is to add a version of EWT but in journey time form. With the intention of making EWT/EJT one whole umbrella math mess, as opposed to two systems to be mindful of being fined/bonuses for.

Saturday services on weekday holidays, possible?

Can save around £65,700 every summer holiday (i.e every year)
Is it worth it? Is it doable? It gives 3 buses a holiday at least.
Better to trade rather than all-weekday cuts to service

As you probably know, there are school-holiday Monday-Friday timetables on select bus routes. Any schedule is hard to conjure up even with the aid of Excel on our computers, still taking time from someone's hours a company would pay for just for minor adjustments in the perspective of the timetable.

Minor adjustments in the perspective of the timetable: Major adjustments in travel time London-wide.

We should also already know travel speed in London is astonishingly low, among the lowest in it's capital city peers in Europe

Therefore, is it possible to make routes use Saturday timetables on holidays, if not, why?

If it were possible to split a day schedule into segments, perhaps that'd be easiest...

Or do a 241, 5 bph on M-F shopping hours but 6 bph M-F peaks and Saturday