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| The reckoning |
As if the consultation on 414 wasn't enough (cutting it from Maida Hill to Marble Arch as two every 7-8 services is overkill, their words not mine). May or may not have poked at it. The Croydon and Sutton review came just days after. I'm here after my long AFK playing and doing calculations for the 414 and now I have returned with calcs to show you, the Croydon & Sutton changes (at the bottom).
Also also, the consultation on 428 getting cut back from Bluewater to Crayford (and conversion to double deck) and 492 cut back from Bluewater to Dartford has been reversed, with 428's double decking going ahead. All's well that ends well...?
To summarise, Sutton first:
164: Extended from Sutton Station to Sutton Hospital (pending development)
413: Rerouted at Sutton Town Centre to Belmont Station via S3
470: Rerouted via Staytons Road and Oldfields Road instead of part of Sutton Common Rd
S1: Rerouted between St Helier Hospital and Middleton Road "to upgrade vehicle size"
S2: New route, covering S4's St Helier-Belmont section and 80's Belmont Prison section. Frequency to every 20 mins Monday-Saturday. Every 30 Sundays/evenings.
S3: Cut between Belmont and Sutton
S4: Cut between Belmont and St Helier. Extended from Roundshaw to Waddon Marsh via 455. Frequency to every 20 mins Monday-Saturday. Every 30 Sundays/evenings.
Summarising Croydon:
312: Extended to Old Lodge Lane via Purley and current 455
407: Cut between Croydon Town Centre and Caterham (see 443).
434: Extended from Whyteleafe to Caterham. Rerouted via unserved Higher Drive in Kenley
439: New route between Whyteleafe, replacing 434's Northwood Avenue, then via Purley to Waddon Marsh. Every 30 mins Monday-Sunday.
443: New route West Croydon to Caterham replacing 407. Frequency decrease to every 15 Monday-Saturday. Every 20 Sundays/evenings.
455: Withdrawn. (see 166, 312, S4)
As you can see, it's a lot of changes, I can break it down for use cases.
166/455: One-to-one replacement on Pampisford Road. 166 and 455 are both every 20
312/455: Increases Old Lodge Lane's freq from every 20 to every 12
407/443: Improves reliability of 407
413/S3: Improves the Sutton-Belmont section, 413's freq of every 15 > S3's every 20
434/439: Allows for a service in some parts of Kenley for the first time. 439 'relieves' 289's "busiest section"
470/S3: Reroutes to make S3 less convoluted and less slower.
S1: Already mentioned
S2/S4: Splitting S4 to allow it to replace 455 pretty much
I'll cut to the point and if you haven't realised Croydon is getting the shorter end of the stick I'll have to rant what I understand thus far as I type this.
Four Five Five.
I understand the 455 is long (13 miles long), it's patronage last year was 1.37 million at 785K kms operated. That's admittedly lower than 433's 1.7M at 670K kilometres. For reference the 312 is even denser at 1.67M for 455,637 kilometres operated.
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| SOE33 (LX09BXS), Whitgift Centre, Croydon |
It's routeing is tacky as a result of it's past. Going from a route numbered 255 (West Croydon - Roundshaw) using a crosslink [ex-254(bootleg 154) then 68] and evolving into a circular anticlockwise via Waddon, Croydon Road, Wallington, Roundshaw then Waddon back to West Croydon. From introduction in 12/09/1988 it was turned into a regular service as a single deck on 28/09/1996 under the 455 number, between Wallington Shotfield and Purley Old Lodge Lane allowing 450 to be cut back to West Croydon, this section handed down from single deck 412. The only other changes to 455's route was the double run into Beddington's ASDA, extension from Shotfield to the Station forecourt and the double run into Purley Way Sainsbury's in 2009 which was removed in 2017.
The withdrawal of it however break some links in the process. Notably the parallel with the tram. The section in comparison to the rest of the route is more sparsely used, not to say completely unused. The removal of the double run in Waddon Marsh did deal damage, as the S4's extension is reintroducing that link to Wallington and Roundshaw residents. In addition, the S4 not going Croydon makes it harder to stomach a possible patronage increase since it's close to Croydon yet doesn't go that extra step there, even if other routes are present it can aid them.
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| DW116 LJ05BHY, Croydon Arena, Woodside |
The southern half however is where my opinion gets harsher. The route could've easily been split and had a frequency increase to every 12 mins to increase capacity in Old Lodge Lane, without involving the 312 which is already more shaken from traffic in comparison. That and the low bridge by Reedham Station forcibly makes it single deck, something that is useful for unallocated double decks to give extra capacity on the existing South Croydon - Norwood Junction section.
Pampisford Road I can see the need to not increase the frequency there, with double deck 405 present to aid 455 for school traffic it's not a particular issue. That said 405D being renumbered to 645 (PDF map if you're lazy) does separate it further from the daytime counterpart which is slightly shorter at the northern end at Croydon Town Centre rather than West Croydon, so a small plus even if it's extended to seemingly be there as a school alternative for lack of a cross-Croydon 407. To conclude, my main issue comes from the enthusiast side of me though rationally speaking there is a few broken links which is covered by introduction of other new links, if you'd go from Old Lodge Lane to Addiscombe or something.
Moving on to 407.
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| PDF link |
Yes the 407 is unreliable, with it's entire route filled with traffic start to end. Sutton-Croydon, Croydon-Purley shared with other trunk routes, and Purley-Caterham where it's not uncommon to see short runs specifically between Caterham and Purley. For reliability's sake it did need a cut. There is an easier way of dealing with it than introducing an entirely new route number, such as swapping 403/407 so that 403 returns to Sutton whilst 407 is cut short to West Croydon. Both are 7 miles long south of Croydon, both every 12, the 403 however is quieter south of Croydon and would only add 6 miles to go to Sutton.
The 443, since that is it's number, will take on one half of 407's misery, adding another misery with it's frequency reduction from high frequency every 12 to low frequency every 15. It'll remain double deck (good), the only thing new is the absence of 433's supposed extension from Croydon Town Centre to Old Town (between South Croydon and Church Street). Presumably that idea's shelved for this, or it's still on the cards. They did mention they'd probably source a new route via Old Town, this is a new route. All in all, improves in reliability so a plus I suppose.
Existing/new, 434/439 and more on 443
I have little knowledge on this relatable small route allocated 8.9m Enviro200s (yes 434). With it's reroute in Coulsdon to Cane Hill off the cards with rejections by residents and 404 being sent there instead, at the cost of possibly improving 434's frequency from every 30 to every 20. Now this time I wonder if the residents between Purley and Kenley would object to the loss of 434, since that serves the same purpose of serving Purley as 439 will. That said, 434's extension to Caterham obviously stems from the lack of intention to make a stand in Kenley, so sending the new route 439 to Whyteleafe taking 434's stand. Caterham going from one high frequency route to two low frequency routes is how I assume the stand space will remain okay.
The way I see 439 is an excuse for two things.
2) Undoing the double run that 289 had into Waddon Marsh, or Purley Way Sainsbury's as you read on my comment of 455
As as result Purley-Whyteleafe goes from 7 buses per hour (407's 5 + 434's 2) to 8 bph (434's 2 + 439's 2 + 443's 4). On the surface an improvement. Whyteleafe-Caterham from 5 bph to 6 bph. Still an improvement. Though you'll need to change at Purley if your intention is to go Croydon of course using the almighty hopper.
One thing I'll admit is that whilst 289's reroute away from the double run has broken links and thus may have reduced patronage, the route's usage overall has gone from strength to strength, receiving a frequency increase from every 15 to every 12 since. Perhaps my stern thoughts of 439 being a cover-up for 289's removal from the double run is a bit steep, considering the 289 is a little faster as a result, saving no bus in the process but hey ho.
Sutton
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| PDF link |
Since I've made the Croydon section of this post a little long I'll try to wrap this up.
The 80 probably won't save a bus at the least, or 1 bus at most. Whilst 164 would probably require an extra bus but might not at best. The 80 already serves Sutton Hospital (the Cancer Hub) and is a short walk from Royal Marsden. Meanwhile the 164 is pending on development, in translation, a little later down the line. Hopefully the 164 would also become double deck like the 80 will.
Sire 413 turned 30 exactly two weeks prior on the 2nd. Introduced to replace 213 between Belmont and Sutton but using the entire length of Carshalton Road instead of Westmead Road as per current-S3/future-413. Using one bus but it evolved into a daily service converted to minibuses 10 months later, extended to Lower Morden. Then in November 1996 it was cut south of Sutton replaced by S3 but in the other direction extended to Morden as we know today. A route returning to it's previous routeing isn't unheard of, the 413 is just doing a 50 (the current 255 is the successor of 60 which went Clapham Common whom replaced the current 50).
I can only see TfL rerouting the other routes as they see fit, even if S3 is a little convoluted but still, a direct service on your doorstep (a bonus plus if it's hail & ride) seems like biting the hand for little reason. The 470 getting involved to take the full length of Stayton Road is a plus I suppose? Whereas S1's reroute is something I lack knowledge in terms of flows but unlike 384 I suspect this will go swimmingly by comparison, promising larger vehicles... where have I heard that promise before? E10. That was a damn lie.
S2/S4
I appreciate for OCD reasons the number S2 is back, going off on a tangent I have done the S2 once and was packed the entire way, that's current 488 for you. Anyways, the job here is to split S4 so it can be extended on the other end to replace 455 for arbitrary reasons from the way I see it. I mean, TfL has cut a lot of routes jumping on the gun (25) or YOLO we'll do it again anyways lols and giggles (53), roadworks are eternal (3/15), etcetera etcetera. The current entire length of S4 is getting a frequency increase to every 20 so that's a plus, even if the eastern end is a closer one-to-almost-one replacement of 455.
Total PVR: Currently 114.
Total PVR: Prediction 123.
Here is some calculations and the spreadsheet in general for which I have plotted this mess.
This was just me ranting about this, somewhat vocally whilst somewhat praising it but in any case, just wanted to write something up again and this was the perfect fuel, so thanks for reading my rant and stay safe.
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