I think we have established routes 129 SL4 and Silvertown Tunnel Cycle Bus (numbered SCS) use the new tunnel, with buses per hour at 7.5 + 7.5 + 5 respectively.
Buses per hour through Blackwall Tunnel: 5 bph
Buses per hour through Silvertown Tunnel: 20 bph
Total change in bus requirement: +36
I think we also have it established the above routes, and 108, will all be free to use for a year. To compensate for the high tolls on Blackwall Tunnel and Silvertown Tunnel.
I have uploaded this on 1st April hopefully but the tunnel opens next week on the 7th.
Postscript: Completely forgot until now (14/5/25), whoops.
Unfortunately delivery services and small businesses ranging from vans to lorries will be quite negatively affected with no option but to lose money either way - direct loss or from time lost via Rotherhithe.
Alas.
I believe this selection of routes doesn't do well against the high toll cost aimed at car drivers, especially more so when using the bus routes listed above as the means to cross the river.
It will work, both 129 and SL4 will soak up with their lavish frequencies especially as free alternatives to 108 and 261 respectively... but it's the perception I am focusing on.
You will have to be from or connect to a route from...
South of river:
Blackheath
East Greenwich
Greenwich
Grove Park
Lee
Lewisham
North Greenwich
Westcombe Park
North of river:
Beckton
Bow
Canary Wharf
Canning Town
Gallions Reach
London City Airport
Poplar
Silvertown
Stratford
Boroughs:
Newham
Lewisham
Greenwich
Tower Hamlets
Glaringly, Woolwich is missed out, which is very easily remedied.
By human nature, the easiest path is the path many will take. Path of least resistance, literally. The London Underground has signage in stations that intend to take a person who knows no better, in a roundabout wild goose chase, in order to manage passenger flows. This strategy keeps good crowd control in especially busy stations... think of Bank.
Passengers don't like changing vehicles, changing twice is palatable with quite minimal loss of passengers. Changing thrice is a turn-off for many.
Since the tunnel is new, the same logic can be used in a different direction. The easier it is to travel with less changes, the higher the chance it will be adopted if it certainly means the few routes aren't crowded.
When a bus is at full seated load is where other transport agencies start to upgrade services.
Here, it is at 70% total capacity. Vast majority of the network fail this but most bus routes average 45-60% total capacity at their peak usage.
Though, when you start having standing loads often, it is merely hopeful to squeeze extra passengers in. Often, the less abled or disabled, even buggy users will find themselves with difficulty at best, or not ride in the hopes of a less sardined vehicle.
I will apply the same human-facing nature of selling the product, Silvertown Tunnel bus routes, aggressively.
Remember Congestion Charge?
Soft-ban of car traffic in the city centre - Central London, practically a first in the developed world. So much so that it is an inspiration for other cities, even American ones taking a lesson or two! (Why have we stopped innovating...) This necessitated many new bus routes and a mountain of bus route frequency increases. Many new bus lanes were installed, all culminating in a large increase of bus passengers and decrease in car traffic.
Congestion Charge bus changes in 2002-2003 have been quite luxurious by 2023-2025 standards. The 414 has died, RV1 has died, many many bus routes reduced to a frequency inferior to before they were increased in line with Congestion Charge. Even routes new back then like 432 and 436, have a frequency inferior to when they were newly introduced.
You have waited long enough, I will be blunt:
From north of river:
- 15 extended from Blackwall via either tunnel non-stop to North Greenwich (~10 mins journey time added)
- 69 extended to Charlton via 472 (~20 mins added), perhaps Woolwich (~30 mins added from Canning Town). Night service certainly to Woolwich.
- 147 extended to North Greenwich (~5 mins journey time added)
- 330 rerouted at Canning Town via Silvertown Tunnel and 335 to Kidbrooke. (~30 mins journey time added)
- D6 extended from Ash Grove to Hackney... to Homerton Hospital if new stand space isn't feasible. Rerouted at Poplar via Canning Town to North Greenwich. Converted to double deckers and frequency slightly reduced from every 7-8 to every 8-9. A route in Isle of Dogs rerouted to replace sections of D6's Crossharbour section. (~30 mins journey time added)
- New SL21 North Greenwich - Romford Market. Limited stop parallel of route 5 which is non-stop from Canning Town to Barking via the A13 road. (~80 mins maximum journey time). Route 5 frequency reduced to every 8 Mon-Sat.
From south of river:
- 129 diverted at Greenwich to Peckham (and 177 diverted to Lewisham). Curtailed to Beckton from Great Eastern Quay (101 and 262 extended to Great Eastern Quay to keep proposed link to Beckton) Frequency reduced from every 8 to every 10
- 180 extended to Canning Town (~ 5 mins journey time added)
- 188 night service numbered N188 and extended to Canning Town
- 335 withdrawn. See 330.
- 486 extended to Canning Town (~5 mins journey time added)
- SL4 as proposed and in short-term extended to Bromley North via 126; long-term the railway line from Bromley North turned into a busway and SL4 routed there (with another Superloop from Bromley-Woolwich using this busway to justify cost better). Frequency reduced from every 8 to every 10.
- New Superloop route Eltham - North Greenwich - Bow Church - Hackney Wick - Leyton - Gants Hill (done in conjunction with a Superloop from Stratford-Bow-Tottenham-Ponders End to create more cross-river connections)
Buses per hour through Blackwall Tunnel: 10 bph
Buses per hour through Silvertown Tunnel: 61 bph
Total change in bus requirement: +45
Reminder, the real changes we have is a +36 (route 108 frequency not reduced yet)
Absolutely mammoth change of course, but, this is the very project that must have investment poured in, or injected like steroids in my opinion. Truly a golden moment wasted. Yes it would cost a lot in the short term but in the long term many of these would pay back in full and even double - linking Woolwich with Stratford and other connections from Canning Town is no laughing joke.
I realise now after adding this many that I have completely broken past what is realistic or feasible and seamlessly entered the stratosphere of fantasy. I initially added 188 (as Aldywch-Canning Town, 172 to Tottenham Court Road) and a split of 108 (into 108 via Silvertown Tunnel, Canning Town, Bromley-by-Bow and the 408 between Stratford International and North Greenwich as current 108, N108 unchanged).
I was still so adamant on 309 to North Greenwich but I gave up, adding D6 instead which gives Hackney a moving billboard in red about a service that uses the tunnel to cross the river. This also replaces my draft idea of 486 to Mile End, allowing 486 to just terminate at Canning Town.
I changed my rather wild 304 idea, East Ham via North Greenwich to Surrey Quays, paralleling 188 and allowing it to be cut to Greenwich from North Greenwich improving reliability; an N188 extension to Canning Town. In place of this, 147 extension covers East Ham and also adds Ilford and the borough of Redbridge into this map.
Some of these are a little risky, 188 already takes 105 minutes at maximum end-to-end. The 15 is also a route that can face issues but that is usually at the central end, but nothing stops fallout from East London traffic.
SL4 is certainly a missed opportunity to not link Bromley, assuming even a small amount of residents work in the Docklands.
Merging 330 and 335 into a route with at most 75 minutes journey time provides new links but the most important part here is reducing stand space for other routes to occupy. Practically an amazing fusion opportunity like 170 and 239 at Clapham Junction in 2008 allowing 170 to be a cross-Clapham Junction route.
The above changes will create the below:
You will have to be from or connect to a route from...
South of river:
Abbey Wood
Blackheath
Bexleyheath
Bromley
Charlton
Deptford
East Greenwich
Erith
Greenwich
Grove Park
Kidbrooke
Lee
Lewisham
New Cross
North Greenwich
Peckham
Plumstead
Shooters Hill
South Thamesmead
Surrey Quays
Welling
Westcombe Park
Woolwich
North of river:
Aldgate
Aldwych
Ash Grove
Barking
Beckton
Becontree Heath
Bethnal Green
Bow
Cambridge Heath
Canary Wharf
Canning Town
East Ham
Forest Gate
Gallions Reach
Gants Hill
Hackney Central
Hackney Wick
Homerton
Ilford
Leyton
Leytonstone
Limehouse
Little Ilford
London City Airport
Ludgate Circus
Mile End
Monument
Plaistow
Poplar
Prince Regent
Romford
Silvertown
Stepney
Stratford
Tower Hill. Tower of London.
Trafalgar Square
Upton Park
Walthamstow
Wanstead Park
Boroughs:
Newham
Lewisham
Greenwich
Southwark
Lambeth
Barking & Dagenham
Havering
Tower Hamlets
City of London
Bromley
Redbridge
This could have been done in a revolutionary scale that would absolutely reduce private traffic a noticeable margin, delivered in a way that is at least half as astounding as a new tunnel linking islands in Hong Kong - where public transport is a necessity to plan in order to not jam the roads because space is a high premium when you are surrounded by mountains and can only build houses and offices upwards as a result.
(True reason is much of the unused usable land is owned but otherwise, certainly difficult geography)
I hope you enjoyed this post written, take care of yourself, stay safe, until the next one, see you.
Calculated PVR increases from North of river as +2 +5 +2 +4 +2 +16 respectively.
Calculated PVR increases from South of river as: -4 +1 +0 +7 +1 -3 +12ish respectively.
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